Thursday, April 1, 2010

MLB Predictions: American League

As I do at the end of every spring training, it is time to my my predictions of the standings and playoffs for baseball.

AL EAST
1. Yankees
2. Red Socks
3. Rays
4. Orioles
5. Blue Jays

Thoughts:

  • The Yankees seem like the favorite again as their line-up gained a nice increase in speed and defense with Curtis Granderson, and the pitching staff looks stronger with Javy Vazquez's return to the Bronx. Power was lost with Matsui leaving, and veteran leadership of Johnny Damon will be missed, but the team seems just as good as the team that won it all last year.
  • The Red Socks probably made the best signing, adding John Lackey to complete a 1-2-3 punch of himself, Josh Beckett, and Jon Lester. With their rotation very good, the problem becomes health and power. Dice-K, Wakefield, Beltre, and Ortiz are not as youthful as they used to be and need to stay off the DL for the team to win. Youkilis and Martinez look to be the power in the line up with the loss of Jason Bay, and their roster is a bit cramped with Jason Varitek and Mike Lowell limited to useless back-ups. Expect the Socks to the the Wild Card
  • The Rays didn't have the most eventful off season, adding really only power hitting Hank Blalock and closer Raphael Soriano. Neither are too impressive, but can certainly help the team. The Ray's key is the development of players who were break-outs next year. The team needs bigger years from youngsters Ben Zobrist, Jason Bartlett, Evan Longoria, Jeff Neiman, and David Price. With good seasons from "veterans" Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, Dioner Navarro, BJ Upton, and James Shields the Rays can certainly contend.
  • The Orioles had a pretty solid off season, adding closer Mike Gonzalez, and newly-positioned Miguel Tejada and Garett Atkins. With top hitters Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis, plus youngsters Matt Wieters and Nolan Reimold, the O's have a pretty decent lineup. Their staff is very weak however, but looks to develop over the course of the year.
  • The Blue Jays just got bad over the off season. They traded lone-star Roy Halladay and how only really have washed up Vernon Wells to market. Good years from Aaron Hill and Adam Lind don't look like sure things, and even then won't be enough. With no offense or pitching, look the Jays to do nothing this year

AL Central
1. White Sox
2. Twins
3. Tigers
4. Royals
5. Indians

  • The White Sox got better this off season, adding Juan Pierre and losing the much older Jermain Dye. With a healthy Jake Peavy on that solid staff and a still good line up, expect the White Sox to be back where they were a couple years ago.
  • The Twins would have been my favorite to win the division, but the loss of closer Joe Nathan is big enough to put them down to second at best. Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jim Thome, Mike Cuddyer, and Jason Kubel are great power options, but the rest of the order has little to write home about. A solid pitching staff or the Twins, but not good enough to do much.
  • The Tigers continue to get worse. Their pitching staff has holes and question marks on anyone not names Justin Verlander. Their pen improved with the addition of Jose Valverde, but their starting staff is just too inconsistent. Their lineup is much different this year without Curtis Granderson, and is simply too old. Magglio Ordonez and Johnny Damon are too old to be productive in Comerica Park, Carlos Guillen is so far over the hill, and Brandon Inge isn't good. Miguel Cabrera is excellent, but not enough to save the Tigers from another disappointing year.
  • The Royals have Zack Greinke and Joakim Soria and that is it. They brought in Rick Ankiel to steroid up the line up, but with useless players like Jason Kendall in there too, the Royals look to once again be irrelivant.
  • The Indians are god awful once again. Shin-Soo Choo led the team in every major offensive category last year, largely due to injuries to Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore. Even if healthy, those two are far from enough to save the Tribe, who has no pitching at all. I mean, did anyone even know that Jake Westbrook was still alive?

AL West
1. Angels
2. Mariners
3. Rangers
4. A's

  • The Angels may have lost John Lackey, Vlad Guerrero, and Chone Figgins, but they still have the most dependable team in the division. A solid staff of Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, and Joel Pineiro is probably the deepest starting staff in the AL. Brian Fuentes is overrated but good enough as the closer to keep their Angels staff their key to success. Big years from Torii Hunter and Kendry Morales, and also their middle infielders are needed to succeed.
  • The Mariners added Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins who both complete 1-2 punches at the top of the rotation and lineup with Felix Hernandez and Ichiro Suzuki respectively. But, Lee is hurt, as is Erik Bedard, and the Mariners offense won't be enough to overtake the Angels yet.
  • The Rangers had a big year last year, and added Rich Harden and Vlad Guerrero who are old but still good enough. They traded long time ace Kevin Millwood, and are simply too dependent on Nelson Cruz and Michael Young to have as good of years as they did last year. Also, stars Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler are injury prone, so they're simply not reliable enough to contend with the top of the division.
  • The A's are horrible. I don't even need to elaborate further. God awful.

Post Season:

  • Yankees over White Sox in 4
  • Red Socks over Angerls in 5
  • Yankees over Red Socks in 7

Awards:

  • MVP: Evan Longoria (second and third choices: Justin Morneau and Mark Teixeira)
  • Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (second and third choices: Jon Lester and Mariano Rivera)

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