Sunday, October 4, 2009

Playoff Breakdown, Part Two

Finally we have the 2 NL match ups. I'll do one now, another later tonight.

Next up: Philadelphia Phillies vs. the Colorado Rockies

Catcher: Carlos Ruiz vs. Chris Iannetta
Advantage: Phillies. In an offensive clash of the titans, I decided to go with Ruiz for a couple reasons. First off, they're pretty much even in terms of batting, which isn't exactly a good thing. But Ruiz is good for his staff, good defensively and most importantly...he has a ring.

First Base: Ryan Howard vs. Todd Helton
Advantage: Phillies. Not really much of a surprise here, Howard had another monster offensive year. More importantly, he got better from last year in terms of batting average (up almost 30 points) and striking out (I think "less bad" is more appropriate than "better" here, but still an improvement none the less). Helton once again proved me wrong and put up another great year leading his team. He's a machine in terms of batting average, and despite his age still put up respectable power numbers. But still, Howard has probably the best numbers in the NL of anyone who doesn't have the last name "Pujols", so this one is easily his.

Second Base: Chase Utley vs. Clint Barmes
Advantage: Phillies. In another non-shocker, the Phils once again provide one of the best at the position. Here's what you need to know...Utley is great, Barmes is better than you'd expect, but still not too good.

Third Base: Pedro Feliz vs. Ian Stewart
Advantage: Phillies. While this is a closer match-up, Phils still got this one pretty easily. Stewart has good numbers, but Feliz is a sleeper in that line up.

Short Stop: Jimmy Rollins vs. Troy Tulowitzki
Advantage: Rockies. Rollins had a very down year, and Tulo had a very up year. Tulo has the better power numbers, a much better average, and keeps pace with stolen bases. After the 2008 fantasy nightmare that was drafting Tulo in the 4th round (back to back with JJ Puttz), it pains me to say that he's got the edge of Rollins

Left Field: Raul Ibanez vs. Seth Smith
Advantage: Phillies. Smith is put up decent numbers, flying under the radar. However, only an injury slowed down the monster year that Ibanez had. He proved to be a great signing (I use great based on this formula: 80% his numbers, 20% Pat Burell's numbers). Another dangerous lefty in that line up, Raul has a very big up on Smith.

Center Field: Shane Victorino vs. Dexter Fowler
Advantage: Phillies. The 23 year-old Fowler has very impressive numbers, but not good enough to match up with the veteran Victorino (yes, veteran). They're both good, switch-hitters with speed, but Victorino has more pop and a much better average

Right Field: Jayson Werth vs. Brad Hawpe
Advantage: Even. Werth proved his 29 years-old-break-out season of 08 wasn't a fluke, putting up excellent 09 numbers in the middle of that fierce line up. Hawpe amazingly played better when the Rockies struggled, and struggled as they surged (Fantasy player, I kept a close eye). Head to head, they've got very similar numbers, making it an even advantage. However, you cannot forger that Hawpe is the star of the Rockies line up, while Werth is probably their 5th most important hitter.

Starting Pitching:
Advantage: Even. Rockies have some very good starters with Jimenez and Marquis, who both had ERA under 4 and 15 wins. Rockie pitchers also had more impressive strike out numbers and ERAs. Rockie pitchers also had very high loss totals, and none of them have really ever proven themselves before. The Phillies have less impressive numbers, but they have the experience. They proved they can all step it up, which go them rings last year. Additionally, they made a fantastic trade landing Cliff Lee at the deadline, who when mixed with the rest of the rotation fits in much nicer than he ever did with Cleveland. You cant ignore the stats or the reputation, so this is a good match up.

Bullpen
Advantage: Phillies. Here the Phils have not only the stats, but the experience to go along with it. Rockie relievers do not have impressive numbers at all, and their starters are going to be the key factor of the entire series.

Closer: Brad Lidge vs. Huston Street
Advantage: Rockies. Unless Lidge can get rid of his second case of the yips, the Phillies might be in trouble. Lidge has lights out stuff, but he needs to find just some of what he had last year. The playoffs can be a new beginning, so he'll be going in with an ERA of 0.00. He was a gem last year there, but you cannot ignore the regular season. Street has shown to be a good trade acquisition, although his stats are too overly impressive. Still, Lidge has been so shakey all year that Street simply has the advantage right now.

Series Prediction: Phillies in 4

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